FEATURE PHOTO – USC quarterback Kedon Slovis throws against the UCLA defense last season. Credit – Marcio Jose Sanchez, Associated Press with permission from Trojans Wire
We asked Matt Zemek, editor of TrojansWire.com, five questions ranging from the atmosphere that surrounds the program to a prediction of what might happen on Friday night in the Coliseum ahead of the Ducks facing No. 14 USC for the Pac-12 championship. Here are his answers.
USC is 5-0 heading into the title game, so is there still real doubt with fans about Clay Helton’s future in Los Angeles?
The doubt does not exist relative to 2021. Everyone knows Helton will coach the team in 2021. The doubt is still pervasive and deep among the fan base. Let’s be real: Though 5-0 is a great record and a possible Pac-12 title would be great, and a possible Fiesta Bowl bid would be great, this is not a great team, and it hasn’t played at a high level for long, sustained periods this season.
Yes, the team which dominated Utah in the second half, or Washington State in the first half, or UCLA after falling behind by 18 points, is an imposing team. Yet, USC doesn’t play complete games. It was extremely lucky to beat Arizona State and Arizona. Keep in mind that USC didn’t get to play Alabama or Notre Dame this year. The Trojans would have lost by 24 or more points in each game. Fans can see through the 5-0 record, and I’m in agreement with them.
USC is soft, and that comes from Helton. No one thinks he is the long-term answer. The 2021 season will tell us if the Todd Orlando hire at defensive coordinator can save his job. Right now, I wouldn’t make any firm predictions.
Kedon Slovis is a young QB and has shown great promise, but what has caused the Trojans to start slow, and then have incredible comebacks?
The offensive line is not a line that grinds down opposing defensive lines. This is a solid pass-protection line but not a bulldozing run-blocking line. If you noticed the UCLA comeback, USC’s success in the running game came on a mixture of delay draws and quick-tempo plays. This isn’t Student Body Right, to be sure.
There is also a pervasive feeling within the program that Slovis’s arm is not 100 percent. USC has not asked him to throw many downfield passes, though — curiously — he did throw a lot more long balls after falling behind by 18 against UCLA. If there is a long-term source of hope for Clay Helton, it is that he got through this season without a fully healthy Slovis. If we get to August camp next year and Slovis has regained full arm strength, that significantly raises USC’s ceiling. This year, however, the playbook has been very limited, with a lot of quick out passes to the boundaries representing the vast majority of Graham Harrell’s offense.
Oregon has shown itself to be a real recruiting nemesis to USC over the last three years with so many talented So Cal players choosing Eugene. How are the Trojans combatting that particular battle and what’s been the cause?
USC football struggling in the two seasons after Sam Darnold left undeniably wounded the program and its reputation. The solution to this problem is to win, so while USC hasn’t looked dominant this year, it’s still crucial that the program is 5-0 and not 3-2. That matters … and beating Oregon head to head would be valuable to Helton for the same reason. Maybe Helton wouldn’t benefit all that much himself, but he might make a dent in what Cristobal does if he beats the Ducks on Friday. Winning on the field is the ultimate statement USC can make.
The USC defense has given up early points in each of their games but shown their ability to come back. How will the Trojans match-up with the very fast Duck receivers and a true running quarterback in Tyler Shough?
The Trojans’ front seven is not a physically imposing front seven. You saw UCLA run the ball with success in the first half, similar to how Arizona State pushed around the Trojans up front in the first three quarters on Nov. 7, before USC rallied late and contained the Sun Devils in the fourth quarter.
The USC defense’s best position group is clearly the secondary.
Safety Talanoa Hufanga (Oregon native) has produced a dynamic season stuffed with highlight-reel plays. Isaiah Pola-Mao has been good. The cornerbacks have committed fewer penalties as the season has moved along. The Trojans didn’t allow very many passing yards to Jayden Daniels and Arizona State. They smothered the Washington State run-and-shoot attack in their fourth game. UCLA did hit some big pass plays, but those were to the tight end getting matched against linebackers. The USC secondary doesn’t get beaten over the top. Oregon and Joe Moorhead will almost certainly try to get USC’s linebackers in pass-coverage matchups.
Overall prediction for the game… if USC wins, why? And if USC loses, why?
This game feels like a toss-up. I know Oregon has lost two straight games, but the Ducks’ offensive line — which didn’t play particularly well against California — has a more favorable matchup versus the USC defensive front. Oregon won’t get overpowered there, so the offense should be able to function. USC also doesn’t have an imposing ground game, so — unlike the Oregon State game — the Ducks’ defense won’t get dominated.
It feels like a game that will be played on very even terms since most position groups on both sides don’t have overwhelming advantages. USC is a 5-0 team which could easily be 3-2. Oregon has two losses in games it easily could have won. There is no great team in the Pac-12, and USC has won three of its five games in the final minute. Everything about this game points to a photo finish.
USC’s Parker Lewis can kick a 65-yard field goal if needed. If it comes down to a late and long kick, that’s one area where the Trojans have a massive edge.
Oregon had the past weekend off while USC just played a rivalry game and now has a short week with a game on Friday.
Clay Helton has had a four-leaf clover all season. The more I think about this game, the more I think it will be decided in the last minute. It all depends whether the winning play is a touchdown (Oregon wins), a turnover (USC wins — Kedon Slovis hasn’t thrown a fourth-quarter INT all season), or a field goal (USC wins).
Given that two of three scenarios favor USC, I’ll go Trojans 31, Ducks 30 … but again, this is a complete coin-flip.
PAC-12 FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP – GAME INFORMATION
Date; Friday December 18th
Location; Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Kickoff; 5:00 PM PST / 8:00 PM EST
Television: Fox Television Network